Democrats weigh which pain is greater: A shutdown or skyrocketing Obamacare premiums

[Thiệu Ngô]

Republicans are banking on Democrats giving in because of the pain of a shutdown. But Democrats say the pain of increased premiums is far greater.

By Kevin Frey

As the shutdown drags into its third week, the Trump administration is looking to ramp up the pain on federal workers, hoping that will motivate Democrats to cave and reopen the government.

But Democrats are sticking to their shutdown strategy, arguing that the pain of skyrocketing insurance premiums outweighs the suffering that many federal workers are feeling.

“I have a heart and I have a soul, and I understand that this is really tough for a lot of people,” said Rep. Sarah Elfreth, D-Md., whose district is home to more than 40,000 federal workers — one of the largest concentrations of any district nationwide.

But Elfreth said Democrats were picking this fight “because we want to prevent a bad thing from happening,” noting she doesn’t want 2026 to begin “and people suddenly have this huge spike in health care costs, lose their insurance in many cases, and wish House Democrats had fought harder.”

Democrats are demanding that any deal to reopen the government also address Obamacare premiums. In many cases, those premiums will more than double as a result of expiring subsidies. And thus far, Republicans have resisted those calls to extend the subsidies — at most suggesting negotiations could happen after the government is reopened.

In conversations with MSNBC, many Democrats argued that while they’re sympathetic to the pain of the shutdown, the long-term impact of the Affordable Care Act credits expiring would be far worse.

“All of the different kinds of pain inflicted by the administration have converged into a general onslaught against the people. We have no choice but to confront the health care crisis and the government shutdown crisis at the same time,” said Rep. Jamie Raskin — another Maryland Democrat with upward of 50,000 workers in his district.

Privately, Democrats are more explicit about the trade-offs. “The temporary pain of a shutdown pales in comparison to the permanent pain of insurance premiums doubling,” a senior Democratic aide told MSNBC.

When Sen. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., was asked about government workers’ pain, he was clear about the choice.

“We always go back and we back pay our government workers,” Gallego told CNN in the early days of the shutdown. “What’s not gonna happen, if we don’t get any action, 24 million Americans aren’t gonna get their premiums back.”

Roughly 24 million Americans participate in the Obamacare marketplace, with the vast majority of them benefiting from the enhanced tax credits, according to data compiled by KFF.

Without the credits, KFF warns, some marketplace participants may still qualify for a smaller tax credit, while others would lose eligibility entirely.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has already laid off more than 4,000 federal workers since the shutdown began on Oct. 1. And on Wednesday, White House budget director Russell Vought said that, all told, the administration could slash more than 10,000 federal jobs during the impasse.

More than 700,000 federal government employees have been furloughed.

But several Democrats who were at home in their districts in recent days suggested that the conversations they’ve had with constituents have only stiffened their resolve to maintain their fight for health care before reopening the government.

Asked about government workers missing paychecks, Rep. Joseph Morelle, D-N.Y., said, “Obviously people are concerned.”

“But what I heard more about this weekend was notices about health insurance premiums, and people are very, very concerned about it,” Morelle said.

Rep. Glenn Ivey, D-Md., also said federal workers in his district are on Democrats’ side about not giving in until there is a deal on Obamacare.

“This is having a very significant negative impact on them, but I think they understand the magnitude of the moment and, you know, have been really looking forward to a chance to fight back against Trump,” he told MSNBC.

In recent days, Trump has notably relieved some of the pain of the shutdown, shifting funding around to pay the military and maintain a food aid program that helps millions of low-income mothers and their children. But removing that pain also removes some of the pressure to act on the shutdown, which could lengthen it and make it even harder for other groups not lucky enough to be paid.

Asked about the short-term versus long-term pain associated with the shutdown, some Democrats were also eager to turn the table on Republicans, leaning into health care — an issue where the party routinely holds the political advantage in poll after poll.

More than 3 in 4 ACA marketplace enrollees — approximately 18.7 million — live in states that Trump won in 2024, according to KFF. Democrats argue that if Republicans truly care about helping their constituents avoid pain, they should be willing to talk — now.

“This is not a blue state issue; it’s just that Democrats happen to care about saving health care,” Rep. Pramila Jayapal, D-Wash., said.

“I would ask Republicans that: What level of despair and pain are you willing to inflict on your constituents in refusing to come to the table and actually negotiate and govern?” she added.