Moon race: how China is challenging the US

China is currently positioning itself as a formidable challenger to U.S. space dominance, with a strategic roadmap that includes landing astronauts on the Moon by 2030 and establishing a permanent lunar base by 2035. Unlike the shifting political priorities often seen in Western space programs, China's progress is characterized by long-term stability, consistent funding, and a fully integrated industrial chain. Since being barred from the International Space Station in 2011, the nation has successfully built its own orbital hub, the Tiangong ("Heavenly Palace"), where "taikonauts" are currently gaining the essential experience in spacewalks and long-term habitation necessary for deep-space missions.

The transition from low-Earth orbit to the lunar surface involves the development of several high-tech components currently undergoing rigorous testing. A new spacecraft named Mengzhou ("Dream Ship") is scheduled for a test flight in 2026, intended to replace the aging Shenzhou model for lunar orbit missions. To propel these missions, engineers are also perfecting the Long March-10, a massive 90-meter rocket that completed its first low-altitude flight in February 2026. Additionally, the Lanyue ("Seize the Moon") lander is expected to make its maiden flight between 2028 and 2029 to ferry astronauts to the lunar soil.

China's ultimate lunar ambition is the construction of the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) near the Moon's south pole, a region believed to contain vital water ice. In collaboration with Russia, China plans to use innovative 3D-printing technology to create building bricks directly from lunar soil. This technique will be tested during the uncrewed Chang'e-8 mission around 2028, with the goal of having a functional base ready by 2035 to exploit lunar resources and conduct high-level archaeological research into the Moon's origins.

While analysts suggest that China currently lags behind NASA in terms of spacecraft sophistication, many believe the gap will close significantly once the 2030 crewed landing is achieved. Interestingly, Chinese officials rarely frame these goals as a "race" with the United States, instead viewing lunar exploration as a logical scientific progression. However, the limited availability of prime real estate near the lunar south pole means that China’s presence there will inherently challenge American efforts to establish a similar foothold.

Looking beyond the 2030s, the lunar base is intended to serve as a high-tech proving ground for the most ambitious goal of all: a crewed mission to Mars. The CNSA envisions using the technology and survival capabilities honed on the Moon to validate systems for a journey to the Red Planet after 2040. While serious Mars planning likely won't begin until the lunar foundation is solid, the trajectory confirms that China’s eyes are set on a permanent, multi-planetary presence.