Originally Posted by ghe_lo

If Biden were to win all of these contests, he'd accumulate 357 electoral votes. That's well more than the 270 necessary for victory.
Of course, many of these leads are on the small side. Only Biden's advantages in Wisconsin, Michigan, Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District and Pennsylvania are 5 points or greater. All the others are 4 points or fewer at this hour.
But even if Biden were to win just the states where he led by 5 points or more, he'd still get over the 270 electoral vote mark. That was simply not the case for Clinton in 2016.

Indeed, I would be less confident in the state polling if the national polling were not suggesting they were right. Previous calculations indicate Trump probably can't win in the Electoral College if he loses by more than 4 to 5 points nationally. He'd be a favorite only if the margin nationally is less than 3 points.
Trump's not anywhere close to that right now. To get there, he'd, again, need to benefit from a much bigger polling error than four years ago.