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phokhuya · 01-26-2018

United States will eventually rejoin.

“We should welcome the United States when the United States decides to come back at some time in the future,” said Ichiro Fujisaki, a former Japanese ambassador to Washington.

Some observers see those hopes as naïve. “I think it’s simply wishful thinking that the Trump administration will change its mind about the TPP,” said Takuji Okubo, managing director and chief economist at Japan Macro Advisors. “So long as he remains the president, I don’t think he will actually make that turnaround.”

Others suggested that advisers to Mr. Trump might try to change his mind once he sees how difficult it can be to negotiate bilateral trade agreements. But in that case, they say, the 11 remaining countries should not alter the TPP.

“If they try to renegotiate the rules or lower the standards, it will make it harder for the U.S. to rejoin the agreement down the road,” said Bruce H. Andrews, deputy secretary of the Commerce Department in the Obama administration and now a managing director at Rock Creek Global Advisors, a consulting firm.

And there is another reason the TPP countries should maintain the tough trade rules, Mr. Andrews said: to push China toward reform.

“If TPP had gone into force, the Chinese, by necessity, would eventually have wanted to be part of it to enjoy its benefits,” Mr. Andrews said. “In order to get into TPP, China would have had to do some serious economic reform and open their market from their current closed state. If TPP does not go forward as the model, China will likely get better terms from other countries without having to open its market.”

In Japan, Mr. Abe has his own political reasons for wanting to push ahead with the TPP. Mr. Abe expended considerable political capital for the deal, going up against farmers who have traditionally supported his Liberal Democratic Party. The agreement would require Japan’s closed agricultural sector to accept imports of rice, pork and other products.

Mr. Abe has also recently been dogged by influence-peddling scandals, and his party suffered a resounding defeat in a recent local election in Tokyo. By agreeing to the trade deal with the European Union last week, he was able to score a quick victory.

“I think it’s important to keep that momentum,” said Jun Saito, a senior research fellow at the Japan Center for Economic Research.

Japan has indicated that it wants to secure an agreement between the remaining 11 countries in the Trans-Pacific Partnership by November, when many of them will gather at a summit meeting in Vietnam.

Most analysts say any agreement is unlikely to be completed that quickly. Still, said Shumpei Takemori, a professor of economics at Keio University, the reopening of negotiations allows Japan and its allies to “show the U.S. administration that we have alternatives.”

01-26-2018	#2
phokhuya R9 Tuyệt Đỉnh Tôn Sư Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 32,888 Thanks: 62,594 Thanked 62,777 Times in 20,195 Posts Mentioned: 132 Post(s) Tagged: 1 Thread(s) Quoted: 8821 Post(s) Rep Power: 87	United States will eventually rejoin. “We should welcome the United States when the United States decides to come back at some time in the future,” said Ichiro Fujisaki, a former Japanese ambassador to Washington. Some observers see those hopes as naïve. “I think it’s simply wishful thinking that the Trump administration will change its mind about the TPP,” said Takuji Okubo, managing director and chief economist at Japan Macro Advisors. “So long as he remains the president, I don’t think he will actually make that turnaround.” Others suggested that advisers to Mr. Trump might try to change his mind once he sees how difficult it can be to negotiate bilateral trade agreements. But in that case, they say, the 11 remaining countries should not alter the TPP. “If they try to renegotiate the rules or lower the standards, it will make it harder for the U.S. to rejoin the agreement down the road,” said Bruce H. Andrews, deputy secretary of the Commerce Department in the Obama administration and now a managing director at Rock Creek Global Advisors, a consulting firm. And there is another reason the TPP countries should maintain the tough trade rules, Mr. Andrews said: to push China toward reform. “If TPP had gone into force, the Chinese, by necessity, would eventually have wanted to be part of it to enjoy its benefits,” Mr. Andrews said. “In order to get into TPP, China would have had to do some serious economic reform and open their market from their current closed state. If TPP does not go forward as the model, China will likely get better terms from other countries without having to open its market.” In Japan, Mr. Abe has his own political reasons for wanting to push ahead with the TPP. Mr. Abe expended considerable political capital for the deal, going up against farmers who have traditionally supported his Liberal Democratic Party. The agreement would require Japan’s closed agricultural sector to accept imports of rice, pork and other products. Mr. Abe has also recently been dogged by influence-peddling scandals, and his party suffered a resounding defeat in a recent local election in Tokyo. By agreeing to the trade deal with the European Union last week, he was able to score a quick victory. “I think it’s important to keep that momentum,” said Jun Saito, a senior research fellow at the Japan Center for Economic Research. Japan has indicated that it wants to secure an agreement between the remaining 11 countries in the Trans-Pacific Partnership by November, when many of them will gather at a summit meeting in Vietnam. Most analysts say any agreement is unlikely to be completed that quickly. Still, said Shumpei Takemori, a professor of economics at Keio University, the reopening of negotiations allows Japan and its allies to “show the U.S. administration that we have alternatives.”